Da Bomb

December 14, 2009

Secret document exposes Iran’s nuclear trigger

Catherine Philp in Washington

Confidential intelligence documents obtained by The Times show that Iran is working on testing a key final component of a nuclear bomb.

The notes, from Iran’s most sensitive military nuclear project, describe a four-year plan to test a neutron initiator, the component of a nuclear bomb that triggers an explosion. Foreign intelligence agencies date them to early 2007, four years after Iran was thought to have suspended its weapons programme.

An Asian intelligence source last week confirmed to The Times that his country also believed that weapons work was being carried out as recently as 2007 — specifically, work on a neutron initiator.

The technical document describes the use of a neutron source, uranium deuteride, which independent experts confirm has no possible civilian or military use other than in a nuclear weapon. Uranium deuteride is the material used in Pakistan’s bomb, from where Iran obtained its blueprint.

“Although Iran might claim that this work is for civil purposes, there is no civil application,” said David Albright, a physicist and president of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington, which has analysed hundreds of pages of documents related to the Iranian programme. “This is a very strong indicator of weapons work.”

The documents have been seen by intelligence agencies from several Western countries, including Britain. A senior source at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that they had been passed to the UN’s nuclear watchdog.

A Foreign and Commonwealth Office spokeswoman said yesterday: “We do not comment on intelligence, but our concerns about Iran’s nuclear programme are clear. Obviously this document, if authentic, raises serious questions about Iran’s intentions.”

Responding to The Times’ findings, an Israeli government spokesperson said: “Israel is increasingly concerned about the state of the Iranian nuclear programme and the real intentions that may lie behind it.”

The revelation coincides with growing international concern about Iran’s nuclear programme. Tehran insists that it wants to build a civilian nuclear industry to generate power, but critics suspect that the regime is intent on diverting the technology to build an atomic bomb.

In September, Iran was forced to admit that it was constructing a secret uranium enrichment facility near the city of Qom. President Ahmadinejad then claimed that he wanted to build ten such sites. Over the weekend Manouchehr Mottaki, the Iranian Foreign Minister, said that Iran needed up to 15 nuclear power plants to meet its energy needs, despite the country’s huge oil and gas reserves.

Publication of the nuclear documents will increase pressure for tougher UN sanctions against Iran, which are due to be discussed this week. But the latest leaks in a long series of allegations against Iran will also be seized on by hawks in Israel and the US, who support a pre-emptive strike against Iranian nuclear facilities before the country can build its first warhead.

Mark Fitzpatrick, senior fellow for non-proliferation at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, said: “The most shattering conclusion is that, if this was an effort that began in 2007, it could be a casus belli. If Iran is working on weapons, it means there is no diplomatic solution.”

The Times had the documents, which were originally written in Farsi, translated into English and had the translation separately verified by two Farsi speakers. While much of the language is technical, it is clear that the Iranians are intent on concealing their nuclear military work behind legitimate civilian research.

The fallout could be explosive, especially in Washington, where it is likely to invite questions about President Obama’s groundbreaking outreach to Iran. The papers provide the first evidence which suggests that Iran has pursued weapons studies after 2003 and may actively be doing so today — if the four-year plan continued as envisaged.

A 2007 US National Intelligence Estimate concluded that weapons work was suspended in 2003 and officials said with “moderate confidence” that it had not resumed by mid-2007. Britain, Germany and France, however, believe that weapons work had already resumed by then.

Western intelligence sources say that by 2003 Iran had already assembled the technical know-how it needed to build a bomb, but had yet to complete the necessary testing to be sure such a device would work. Iran also lacked sufficient fissile material to fuel a bomb and still does — although it is technically capable of producing weapons-grade uranium should its leaders take the political decision to do so.

The documents detail a plan for tests to determine whether the device works — without detonating an explosion leaving traces of uranium detectable by the outside world. If such traces were found, they would be taken as irreversible evidence of Iran’s intention to become a nuclear-armed power.

Experts say that, if the 2007 date is correct, the documents are the strongest indicator yet of a continuing nuclear weapons programme in Iran. Iran has long denied a military dimension to its nuclear programme, claiming its nuclear activities are solely focused on the production of energy for civilian use.

Mr Fitzpatrick said: “Is this the smoking gun? That’s the question people should be asking. It looks like the smoking gun. This is smoking uranium.”

But We Can Still Trust Ahmadinejad on Nuke Talks, Right?

Posted By Bob Owens On December 11, 2009 on Pajamas Media

On December 7, Fox News was the only major English-language news organization to run a stunning story that revealed the futility of dealing with Iran’s nuke-obsessed ruling cult.

In an interview with Dubai-based Al-Arabiya, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad accused the United States of blocking the return of the Mahdi. This isn’t a dispute over immigration or diplomatic immunity, but a claim made by the follower of a radical Shia cult that the world’s sole remaining superpower is stopping the supernatural return of Muhammad al-Mahdi, the “Hidden Imam” who disappeared more than 1,100 years ago into a cave to await the End of Days.
We could hope this was some sort of dark joke, but it isn’t [1]:

Ahmadinejad reportedly claims he has documented evidence that the U.S. is blocking the return of Mahdi, the Imam believed by Muslims to be the savior.

“We have documented proof that they believe that a descendant of the prophet of Islam will raise in these parts and he will dry the roots of all injustice in the world,” Ahmadinejad said during a speech on Monday, according to Al-Arabiya.

“They have devised all these plans to prevent the coming of the Hidden Imam because they know that the Iranian nation is the one that will prepare the grounds for his coming and will be the supporters of his rule,” Ahmadinejad was quoted as saying.

The press will no doubt downplay this latest declaration as they have previous invocations [2] of the Mahdi by Ahmadinejad — and if media do discuss his seemingly bizarre beliefs, they immediately remind their audience that the real power in Iran is Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

But despite attempts by the world’s media and politicians to avoid dealing with the dark religious overtones in his addresses, Ahmadinejad has repeatedly returned to the same message. That message, of an Iranian government pushing ever further towards the development of nuclear weapons that will fall under the control of an apocalyptic religious movement, is terrifying.

The study of Iranian Shiite eschatology is of interest to world governments that must deal with the region, and the United States is no different. The Pentagon was provided an unclassified January 2006 briefing entitled “Iranian President, Islamic Eschatology, and Near-Term Implications.” A 42-page copy of the slide deck used for that presentation focused heavily on the threat of a faction within the Iranian government, led by Ahmadinejad and his spiritual mentor Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi. Yazdi is a powerful member of the Assembly of Experts, which has the authority to appoint or dismiss the supreme leader. Yazdi’s disciples have sanctioned [3] the use of nuclear weapons.

The document led to a conclusion that Iran was preparing for war, and offered two scenarios. The first built around the idea of a massive Iranian invasion of southern Iraq by up to a half-million Iranians and sympathetic Iraqi Shia. At the time the report was written, there indeed was a possibility that such a scenario could take place — but with the current political climate in Iraq, this scenario seems less likely.

The second scenario was that of a “blitzkrieg-like” rocket and missile assault on Israel by Iran, Syria, and their proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon. In November, Israel intercepted a 500-ton shipment [4] of weapons bound for Hezbollah that included Iranian rockets identical to those used against American forces in Iraq.

At the time of the briefing in January 2006, the Iranian nuclear threat was largely discounted. Nearly four years of accelerated Iranian nuclear development has no doubt changed that picture, and nuclear warheads fired into Israel from Syria, from Hezbollah-controlled southern Lebanon, or by Hamas terrorists in Gaza or the West Bank could decimate Israel without the telegraphed punch of a long-range missile launch from Iranian soil.

A reasonable person would be quick to point out that Israel would likely know exactly where such an attack originated regardless of the actual launch site, and with their alleged but never acknowledged arsenal of nuclear warheads, the Jewish state has quietly allowed the rumor of the Samson Option [5] to be their greatest deterrent to another attempted Holocaust.

Such an overwhelming retaliatory strike by Israel would stay the hand of any aggressive nation with an eye towards self-preservation. But the eschatology of the faction of the Iranian government fronted by Ahmadinejad and his powerful mentor Yazdi is decidedly not interested or deterred by earthly interests, a detail evidenced by Ahmadinejad’s famously spartan lifestyle and his searing rhetoric.

We know from the presentation that the Pentagon has been studying the threat posed by a powerful faction within the Iranian government for at least four years. We also know Iran is led by a faction rapidly developing the capability to carry out a preemptive nuclear strike and that one of the most powerful factions of their government is convinced that triggering such a war could create the cataclysm that would usher in the return of the Hidden Imam to save the world.

Against the distinct possibility of a nuclear Iran plotting a nuclear war that would end millions of lives, we face the flaccid foreign policy of the Obama administration. Since taking office, Obama’s government has not lifted so much as a finger in an attempt at public political deterrence of Iran’s desire for nuclear armaments. On the contrary, his State Department has given every indication of abandoning the Middle East entirely to Iran’s eschatological influence.

Obama dithers.

Will the Middle East burn?

Article printed from Pajamas Media: http://pajamasmedia.com

URL to article: http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/but-we-can-still-trust-ahmadinejad-on-nuke-talks-right/

URLs in this post:

[1] but it isn’t: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,579640,00.html?test=latestnews

[2] previous invocations: http://www.americanthinker.com/2006/01/ahmadinejad_awaits_the_hidden.html

[3] sanctioned: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1420646.cms

[4] 500-ton shipment: http://pajamasmedia.com../../../../../blog/iranian-rockets-captured-by-israel-identical-to-rockets-fired-at-u-s-bases-in-iraq/

[5] Samson Option: http://archive.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2001/10/15/112430.shtml